不同排放情景下大连地区21世纪气候变化预估  

Prediction of Climate Change in the 21st Century in Dalian under Various Emission Scenarios

作　　者：程相坤[1,2] 任学慧[3,4] 刘捷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266003 [2]辽宁省大连市气象局,辽宁大连116001 [3]辽宁师范大学自然地理与空间信息科学辽宁省重点实验室,辽宁大连116029 [4]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第21期11295-11298,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40971294);辽宁省教育厅人文社科一般项目(2009A405);大连市科技局科技计划项目(2008E-13SF189);(2009E11SF230)

摘　　要：利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第4次评估报告提供的20多个气候系统模式的模拟结果,经过插值降尺度计算,以多模式集合模拟结果分析预估不同情景下(SRESA2、SRESA1B和SRESB1)大连地区21世纪气候变化。结果表明,21世纪大连气候总体有显著变暖、变湿趋势。年平均气温变暖趋势为2.45～3.46℃/100年,年降水增加趋势为每100年5.8%～16.3%。冬季变暖最明显,冬、春季降水增加较明显,21世纪前期秋季降水减少较明显。在A2、A1B和B1情景下,21世纪后期气温分别比常年偏高3.46、3.44和2.45℃,年降水分别比常年偏多16.30%、11.80%和5.79%。By means of the output of more than 20 GCM models provided by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC-AR4）,the situation of climate change in Dalian in the next 100 years under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios（SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1）were analyzed.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have a warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century;the linear tendency of temperature changes would range from 2.45 to 3.46 ℃ per 100 years;precipitation increase would range from 5.8% to 16.3% per 100 years.The largest range of warming would be in winter,while the largest increase of precipitation would be in winter and spring;the decrease of precipitation would be in autumn in the early 21st century.Considering the effect of SRES A2,SRES A1B,and SRES B1,tmperature in Dalian would increase by 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃,respectively and precipitation would increase by 16.30%,11.80%,and 5.79% at the end of the 21st century.

关 键 词：全球气候模式 IPCC AR4 气候变化 地面气温 降水 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]