广西春季降水的云物理特征数值预报个例研究  

A Case Study of Numerical Simulation on the Cloud Physics Characters for Spring Precipitation in Guangxi

作　　者：邹光源[1] 刘奇俊 马占山 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区人工影响天气办公室,南宁530022 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《热带地理》2010年第5期471-475,共5页Tropical Geography

基　　金：广西气象局课题"人工影响天气模式预报系统应用研究"

摘　　要：利用国家气象中心研制的中尺度云系模式,模拟研究了广西地区的一次春季云降水天气过程。结果表明,该模式系统对这次云降水系统有较好的预报能力,预报的云降水系统的宏微观结构特征合理。研究显示,冰晶主要处于上层,雪晶主要处于中层,霰主要处于中下层,云水主要处于中下层,雨水主要处于下层;云中强对流区对应地面强降水区;广西春季典型云降水系统中有过冷水,以过冷云水滴为主,有少量的过冷雨水滴,过冷水区冰晶含量稀少,具备人工增雨潜力。云系模式预报的云顶温度与FY-2C卫星反演的云顶温度除了最小值位置略有差别外,最小值基本一致,该云系模式的云产品对人工增雨作业具有一定的指导作用。Cloud physics characters of spring precipitation process in Guangxi are simulated by using mesoscale cloud system model developed by National Meteorological Center.The results show that the cloud system model can forecast the cloud and precipitation physics process well.Macro and micro physical characters of cloud and precipitation forecasted are reasonable.Mostly,ice crystals are located at the high layer,snow at the middle layer.graupel at the middle and low layers,cloud water at the middle and low layers,and rain water at the low layer.Severe convection area in cloud is corresponding to heavy rain area on ground.There is some super-cooled cloud water in spring cloud system of Guangxi.The super-cooled cloud droplet is mostly part of super-cooled cloud water.There are a few super-cooled raindrops in the cloud system.The water content of ice crystal is low in the super-cooled cloud water area.So the cloud system of Guangxi in spring has seeding potentials for rain enhancement operation.The temperature of the cloud top forecasted by the model is in accord with that from remote sensing by FY-2C satellite,only the positions of the minimum values are a little different.It is thought that the cloud products of the model system would be useful for conducting rain enhancement seeding.

关 键 词：中尺度云系模式 云降水预报 云宏微观结构特征 

分 类 号：P435.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]