黄土高原地质灾害气象预报预警模型研究新思路  

New Thought of Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Models of Geological Disasters in Loess Plateau of North Shaanxi

作　　者：高维英 李明[2] 杜继稳[3] 王雁林[4] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省西安市气象局,陕西西安710016 [2]陕西省气象台,陕西西安710014 [3]陕西省气象局,陕西西安710014 [4]陕西省国土资源厅地质环境处,陕西西安710082

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第23期12588-12591,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国土资源大调查项目(水[2007]017-07);陕西省气象局重点项目(2008Z-2)

摘　　要：利用黄土高原47年降雨型地质灾害资料和相对应降雨资料,采用统计方法建立诱发地质灾害日综合雨量方程,得出崩塌和滑坡启动值、加速值、临灾值的临界日综合雨量。考虑地质灾害风险区划、降雨影响系数、日综合雨量,以高时空分辨率自动气象站降雨观测资料和定量降雨预报预警为基础,建立地质灾害逐时动态日预报和逐时预警相互衔接的精细化、无缝隙地质灾害预报预警模型。通过实例检验表明将降雨型地质灾害动态预报模型和预警模型结合起来应用,提高预报时效,效果更好。The study established daily combined precipitation equations and calculated respective critical daily combined precipitation value of loess-collapse disasters and landslide disasters using 47 a geological disasters and corresponding precipitation data. Considering geological disaster risk divisions,precipitation influence coefficient and daily combined precipitation,develops hourly rolling daily-forecasting and hourly warning fine and no-gap models on the base of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall data of automatic meteorological station. Through the verifying of combination of dynamical forecasting model and warning model,the results showed that it can improve time efficiency of forecast and effects.

关 键 词：陕北黄土高原 地质灾害 日综合雨量 预报预警模型 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]