科技进步对中国经济影响的动态CGE研究  

The Effects of Scientific and Technological Progress on China's Macroeconomy:A Dynamic CGE Approach

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 刘亦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第9期47-55,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-09-0329);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(08JA790037);国家社科基金项目(09BJL014);湖南省社会科学规划项目(08YBB315)资助

摘　　要："科学技术是第一生产力",科技进步对促进社会发展有着广泛的影响。通过利用动态CGE模型-MCHUGE模型从宏观经济、产业部门及就业三个层面仿真研究科技进步对我国宏观经济的影响,可以看出科技进步对中国经济造成了一系列的影响。研究结果表明:技术进步有利于促进我国经济增长,改善国民福利,提高人民生活水平,对国民经济的发展具有深远的意义;技术进步短期内对部分产业有一定的负面冲击,但技术进步促进了国内经济资源的优化配置,最终有利于产业长期发展;技术进步对不同行业的就业影响各异,但并不会加剧我国当前的失业问题,而是促进了劳动力在不同产业中的流动。＂Science and technology is the primary productive force＂,scientific and technological progress have a profound influence on promoting the economic and social development.This paper will use the dynamic CGE model——MCHUGE model,from a macroeconomic,industry sector and employment,the three levels of simulation analyze the impacts of scientific and technological progress on China＇s macroeconomic.The results show that technological progress is of great significance for the development of the national economy which conducive to promoting economic growth,improve the national welfare,improving people＇s living standards.Scientific and technological progress may be bringing negative impacts on some industries in the short term,while promote the optimum allocation of resources in the domestic economy and ultimately benefit to industry development.Scientific and technological progress has different influence on the employment of different industries,will not exacerbate the problem of unemployment in our country,but can promote the labor movement in different industries.

关 键 词：科技进步 CGE模型 MCHUGE模型 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]