中日美经济内外部失衡关系的量化分析及评估  

Emperical Analysis and Evaluation of Internal and External Imbalances in China,Japan and the United States

作　　者：庞德良[1] 张恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第9期66-75,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"中国东北亚战略与政策研究"(09JZD0037)

摘　　要：本文运用1970年到2008年的年度数据建立计量模型检验中国、日本和美国的内外部失衡的因果关系,Johansen协整检验显示各变量之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。基于误差修正模型的Granger因果检验结果发现:(1)日本的内部失衡是中国内部失衡的Granger原因,呈现短期替代和长期互补效应;(2)在长期和短期,中美和日美贸易失衡是中国内部失衡的Granger原因,并呈现不同的效应方向。然而,在模型中,日本的内部失衡具有外生性;(3)美国的内部失衡是中美贸易失衡的Granger原因,并伴随着短期正效应和长期负效应,可以推断,美国的内部失衡间接的导致了中国的内部失衡,在一定程度上,存在大国效应。This paper develops an econometric model to examine the casual relationship between internal and external imbalances using yearly data for China,Japan and United States ranges from1970 to 2008.Johansen Cointegration test reveals the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among variables.The Granger non-causality test based on vector error correction model（VECM） indicates that：（1）the Japanese internal imbalance Granger causes that of China,with a short-run substitution effect and a long-run complementary effect;（2）In both short-run and long-run,the Granger causality runs from the Sino-US and Japan-US trade imbalances to China＇s internal imbalances with different signs of effects.However,the Japanese internal imbalance is an extraneous to the model;（3）the US internal imbalance is the Granger cause of Sino-US trade imbalance with short-run positive and long-run negative effects,implying that the US internal imbalance indirectly lead to the China＇s internal imbalance.To some extent,we argue that exist power effect among above three countries.

关 键 词：失衡 Granger非因果检验 JOHANSEN协整检验 方差分解 

分 类 号：F113.1[经济管理—国际贸易]