中国省区城镇化的核心驱动力演变与过程模型  

Dynamic Mechanism of Urbanization and Its Evolution in Post-reform China

作　　者：曹广忠[1] 刘涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第9期86-95,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871075)

摘　　要：在对城镇化驱动因素的相关研究进行回顾和灰色关联分析基础上,从经济系统的视角构建了中国城镇化驱动机制的理论模型,建立了省区城镇化核心驱动力计量模型。实证结果表明:城镇化与经济发展水平逐步协调;服务业的驱动作用已超过第二产业,但工业仍是中西部省区城镇化的核心驱动力;乡村工业化短期内对城镇化有延滞作用,但对城镇化的平稳推进和大中小城市协调发展具有长期效应;笔者更倾向于用内生的观点看待中国城镇化。文章建立了基于驱动力演变的城镇化四阶段模型,并提出应以科学的区域定位为基础培育区域城镇化的核心驱动力。This paper establishes a theoretical model on driving mechanism of urbanization in China from the perspective of economic system.Then the econometric model is built to investigate the core driving forces of China＇s urbanization and the empirical study on five sets of cross-section data from 1982 to 2005 is carried out with Ridge Regression Model（RRM）.The results show that：the urbanization level is progressively coordinate with economic development;the role of the service sector has surpassed the secondary industry,but industrial development is still the core driving force of urbanization in the Midwest China.Rural industrialization defers the urbanization process in the short term,but it plays an important role in the continuous and steady urbanization and the coordinated development of large,medium-sized and small cities and towns in the long term.The continued effect of export-oriented economy is actually the comprehensive reflection of regional variation in policy and location,and we are inclined to look at urbanization in China in the view of endogenous.Finally,the urbanization process model based on the evolution of the driving forces is established.The policy implication is that the local government should attach importance to regional function orientation to foster the core driving forces of regional urbanization.

关 键 词：城镇化驱动力 城镇化过程模型 岭回归 灰色关联分析 耦合度 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]