基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案  

Pre-Evaluation Method of Disastrous Weather Progress Based on Multi-Factor Comprehensive Index

作　　者：周月华[1,2] 郭广芬[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074 [2]湖北省气候变化中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象》2010年第9期87-93,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家科技支撑课题"南方冰雪灾害评估技术研究"(2008BAC48B04)资助

摘　　要：通过分析给出了一种基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案,提出预估应包含对灾害性天气过程本身程度预估和灾害影响预估两个部分。通过建立综合指数来描述灾害性天气过程本身的程度,利用历史和实时气象资料对综合指数进行计算,分别对灾害性天气过程进行历史分析和实时监测;通过列表法,对收集的历史和实时灾害影响资料进行解析,综合指数中组合要素的差异,可用于分析灾害的不同特征;最后利用历史统计情景、相似指数年份类比和中短期预报等三种方案,对灾害性天气进程和影响发展程度进行预估。并以湖北省2008年初持续低温雨雪冰冻过程为例进行具体说明,此次过程综合指数值位居历史第二位,约70年一遇,直接经济损失超过110亿元,是1951年以来冬季损失最大的一次气象灾害。Pre-evaluation method of disastrous weather progress based on multi-factor comprehensive index is put forward,and proposes that estimate should contain a degree of severe weather progress and disaster impact in two parts.It takes process of low temperature,raining and snowing,icing in Hubei Province in the beginning of 2008 for example.Firstly,the multi-factor comprehensive index quantitatively describes the process of low temperature,raining and snowing.The comprehensive indexes of historical sleet process are calculated with meteorological data of every observation station in Hubei.And the index of most seriously process per year forms a historical sequence.The recurrence of the annual index and the index of different recurrent are computed with Gumbel extreme distribution.Rank of yearly low temperature and sleet process is assessed.Secondly,progressive daily comprehensive index of sleet process in 2008 is calculated with multiple meteorological factors.By comparing with the rank and the recurrence period of the comprehensive index,the process in 2008 was evaluated.Finally,by analogy of comprehensive index, historical disaster scenario analysis and short and medium range weather forecasts,the progress to future development degree can be pre-evaluated.Different combination of multiple meteorological factors can be used in the analysis character of disaster.

关 键 词：综合指数 预评估 低温雨雪冰冻过程 类比法 情景分析 

分 类 号：P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]