泥石流沟地形因素危险性的可拓学评价——以重庆市北碚区为例  

THE EXTENSION ASSESSMENT OF THE TERRAIN FACTOR OF DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD——A CASE STUDY IN BEI-BEI CHONGQING

作　　者：曾群华[1,2] 徐长乐[2] 向云波[1] 向卫俊[1] 唐晶晶[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学建筑与城乡规划学院,湘潭400201 [2]华东师范大学城市与区域经济系,上海200062

出　　处：《地质灾害与环境保护》2010年第3期72-78,共7页Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation

基　　金：湖南省教育厅项目--"基于物元理论的滑坡灾害社会经济易损性评价研究"(07C296)

摘　　要：泥石流危险性评价是一个复杂的问题,它是对区域泥石流危险因子的综合分析评价。为了更科学有效地对泥石流的危险性进行评价,必须将定性与定量描述有机地结合起来,才能获得较为合理的评价结果。可拓学就是一门将定性与定量描述结合起来的科学,它以形式化的模型,探讨事物拓展的可能性以及开拓创新的规律与方法。本文首先简单地分析了物元概念的可拓性,针对研究区域重庆北碚特有的地形特点,选取该区域泥石流发生的山坡坡度、相对高差、流域面积等3个因子作为泥石流地形因素的危险性评价因子,对重庆北碚区秤砣沟8条典型泥石流沟的危险性进行评价,根据这些数据,提出用物元可拓集理论构造泥石流危险性等级标准的物元矩阵和待识别对象与各指标的关联度,获得了客观合理的评价结果。Evaluation of the risk of the mud-rock-flow is a difficult problem,which is analyzed comprehensively in assessment for debris flow hazard degree in the research area.In order to evaluate the risk of the mud-rock-flow more scientifically and effectively and t obtain more reasonable evaluation results,qualitative and quantitative description must be combined.Extenics is the science.As an original subject,extenics is under developing recently in China,which addresses the possibility of extension,the creative regulation and method with formalized model.Matter-element theory,which is intersected by system science,a model of thinking science and mathematics,is a kind of new science.In the first place,the extension nature of matter-element concepts is analyzed simply in this paper.In the second place,on the basis of the extension theory,is built a comprehensive evaluation model with multi-norm of the dangerous of the mud-rock-flow.At last,this thesis selects the slope of hillsides,relative height and the drainage area as three main factors to evaluate the potential dangers of 8 typical mud-rock-flow in the Chengtuo Gully in the Beibei area in Chongqing.Based on the data,the approach is proposed to construct the class standard of the debris flow hazard degree,the cognate degrees between the body to be recognized and the various indexes.By means of the model of matter element the author has gained an objective and reasonable evaluation result.

关 键 词：可拓方法 物元模型 关联度 地形因素 泥石流危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]