中国社会消费品零售总额的预测模型  

The Prediction Model of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods of China

作　　者：林浦任[1,2] 胡向飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学数学科学学院,广西桂林541004 [2]钦州学院数学与计算机科学系,广西钦州535000

出　　处：《广西科学》2010年第3期206-208,共3页Guangxi Sciences

摘　　要：用自回归、移动平均、自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）拟合分析2002年1月到2008年8月中国社会消费品零售总额,建立预测消费品零售总额的疏系数乘积季节模型,并用该模型预测2008年6-10月的社会消费品零售总额和2009年月度消费品零售总额.模型预测误差率都在0.03以内,估计值与真实值吻合,拟合效果能达到预期的目的.The autoregression,moving average,autoregression in moving average model were used to fit the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January 2002 to August 2008,and to establish the scattered coefficient model for establish forecasting the total retail sales of consumer goods.The model is used to predict the total retail sales of consumer goods from June 2008 to October 2008,and the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2009.The prediction errors of the model were estimated within 0.03,and the estimated values very closes to the real values,suggesting that the fitting effect can reach the expected purpose.

关 键 词：消费品零售总额 乘积季节模型 疏系数 预测 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]