基于半马尔可夫过程的继电保护可靠性建模  

Reliability Modeling of a Protection System Based on the Semi-Markov Process

作　　者：汪隆君[1] 王钢[1] 李博[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第18期6-10,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50977032);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2009CB219704);粤港关键领域重点突破项目(2009A091300011);广东省高新技术产业化重点项目--工业攻关(2010A010200005)~~

摘　　要：长期以来,电力系统可靠性研究是以状态转移函数服从指数分布为假设前提的,而工程实际中预防性检修间隔时间等均为非指数分布,这必将严重影响分析结果的可信度。为此,文中从可靠性数学基础理论出发,以电力系统继电保护为例,计及其预防性检修,研究建立了基于半马尔可夫过程的具有多停运模式的系统可靠性模型并提出其解析求解方法,克服了传统频率持续时间法要求状态转移函数须服从指数分布的局限性,并具备计算速度快、精度高的优势。以实际电力系统继电保护运行统计数据为其可靠性基础数据,通过与基于序贯MonteCarlo模拟法的可靠性指标仿真结果相比较,充分验证了基于半马尔可夫过程的可靠性建模及其解析求解方法在电力系统可靠性应用研究中的科学意义和工程应用价值与前景。For a fairly long time,it is assumed in power system reliability studies that the state transition functions should follow exponential distribution while in engineering practice,but the preventive maintenance interval is typically non-exponential.Therefore,the assumption is bound to seriously affect the credibility of analysis results.For this reason,this paper proceeds from the fundamental theory of reliability in mathematics,and with the relay protection system as an example and taking into account the preventive maintenance,a model for system reliability with multi-outage modes and its analytical solution based on the semi-Markov process are studied and developed.Thus the limitation of the frequency-duration method requiring exponential distribution transition function is broken through.The advantages of the proposed method are reflected in high precision and high speed.With the actual relay protection operation statistical data as the basic data on reliability,by comparing with numerical results based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation,the proposed reliability model and its analytical solution are fully proved of scientific significance and engineering application value in power system reliability application research.

关 键 词：继电保护 可靠性 半马尔可夫过程 预防性检修 

分 类 号：TM771[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]