随机环境下铁路军事运输保障作战模拟决策方法研究  

Study on Decision-making in Simulation of Military Railway Transport Guarantee under Stochastic Condition

作　　者：李常双[1] 胡建军[1] 周飞飞[1] 赵喜庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事交通学院,天津300161

出　　处：《物流科技》2010年第10期106-110,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：以博弈论为基础,以战时铁路军事运输保障为背景,建立了红蓝双方动态非接触对抗的决策模型;针对战时铁路军事运输保障决策中的随机问题,提出了天气影响因子和随机影响因子,反映战场随机环境对红蓝双方的影响,并建立了随机期望值决策模型。通过模拟,合理设置战场随机状态,客观分析输送过程,为战时铁路军事运输保障决策提供有力的决策支持,方法直观、有效,具有很好的应用前景。This paper on the basis of game theory,and taking the military railway transport guarantee on war time as the background,we established an opposed dynamic and non-contact decision-making model.Aiming at the problems in military decision-making under stochastic condition in uncertainty,we put forward the factors of weather and stochastic influence,which reflects the influence of stochastic condition on the red and the blue,and establishes stochastic opposed decision making models in anticipant value and in correlative chance way farther.It can be seen from the simulating results that the models can dispose the stochastic status in battlefield reasonably,analyse the transport result impersonally,and offer a powerful decision-making sustaining for military command and control.The proposed method is very practical and effective,and has a good applying future.

关 键 词：铁路军事运输保障 随机环境 决策 博弈论 

分 类 号：F530[经济管理—产业经济]