基于Panel Data模型的白条肉价格影响因素及区域特征分析  

Analyzing the Factors and Regional Characteristics of the Sales Price of Carcass Meat Based on Panel Data Model

作　　者：高嵘[1] 刘梦娟[2] 赵勇耀 秦志光[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,四川成都611731 [2]电子科技大学计算机学院,四川成都611731 [3]中国移动河南分公司,河南郑州450008

出　　处：《系统工程》2010年第7期91-96,共6页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：猪肉产业的健康发展对稳定我国的社会经济生活有着至关重要的影响,本文利用Panel Data模型对商务部畜禽屠宰统计监测系统所收集的2008~2009年我国32个地区的生猪平均收购价、屠宰量、生产量、销售量、白条肉出厂价等指标进行实证分析,指出我国白条肉销售价格主要受到生猪收购价格因素的影响,具有显著的正相关性;除贵州、四川等6个地区外,其余地区的销售价格对屠宰量、生产量和销售量三个因素的变化均不敏感。此外,研究结果还反应出经济发达的东部区域的白条肉基准销售价格明显高于西部区域的价格,而生猪收购价对西部区域的销售价格的影响程度明显高于东部区域。Pork industry is very important to our social life and economy of our country.This paper adopts Panel Data model to analyze the relationship among the hog＇s average purchase price,slaughter,production and sales based on the data on over 32 different regions in China from 2008 to 2009.The results indicate that the sales price of carcass meat is mainly influenced by the hog＇s average purchase price,that there is a significant positive correlation between them,and that the retail price is insensitive to the changes of the slaughter,production and sales in most regions except Guizhou,Sichuan and the other 4 areas.In addition,the results also show that the sales price in the rich regions of Eastern China is significantly higher than that in western areas, and that the influence of the hog＇s average purchase price on the retail price in the western regions is also significantly higher than that in the eastern regions.

关 键 词：PANEL DATA模型 白条肉销售价格 特征分析 

分 类 号：S828[农业科学—畜牧学]