Bayes决策及其应用  

The Bayes Decision and its Applications

作　　者：游煦[1] 苏欣[1] 王若鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院数理系,北京102617

出　　处：《北京石油化工学院学报》2010年第3期58-60,共3页Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology

摘　　要：为了利用Bayes决策理论对学生通过考试的概率进行预测,首先在理论上证明了Bayes决策函数是一种最优决策,给出了Bayes决策的错误概率以及回归函数的一条简单的性质。其次在预测学生通过考试的概率模型中,从影响学生成绩的每周电脑游戏时间数T、课外活动时间数E及一些无法量化的指标等因素L出发,用Bayes决策构造出各种情形下的最优决策函数,以较小的错误概率对学生通过考试进行预测,这在实际教学管理过程中有一定的应用价值。In this article,first,the Bayes decision is proved to be the optimal decision for the prediction of students＇ exam passing rate,the error probability of Bayes decision is computed and a property of the regression function is obtained.Second,in the prediction model of the students＇ score,by choosing parameters such as the time used for computer games（T） and entertainment（E）,and some nonquantitative factor（L）,the optimal decision by Bayes decision and its error probability are discussed,for the purpose of predicting students＇ exam passing rate with low error probability.What we have studied is valuable for actual education and administration process.More work is needed for the case with no statistical data of T,E and L.

关 键 词：Bayes决策 回归函数 错误概率 成绩预测 

分 类 号：O178[理学—数学]