树轮记录的甘肃山丹近224年降水变化  

Reconstruction of Annual Precipitation in Shandan Based Tree-Ring since 1783 A.D.

作　　者：陈峰[1] 袁玉江[1] 魏文寿[1] 喻树龙[1] 范子昂[1] 张瑞波[1] 尚华明[1] 张同文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点实验室,新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2010年第5期82-86,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806011),科技部科技基础性工作专项(2007FY220200);国家自然科学基金(40975056),国家自然科学重大基金(40890051);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z13);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM200601、IDM200801);新疆气象局青年基金项目“塔城东部树轮密度对温度响应研究”

摘　　要：根据山丹大黄沟的树轮样本,建立树轮宽度年表。相关分析发现,大黄沟树轮宽度差值年表与山丹上年8月至当年6月的降水存在显著的正相关,相关系数为0.654(P<0.00001)。利用大黄沟的树轮宽度差值年表,可重建山丹近224年来上年8月至当年6月的降水变化。交叉检验表明降水重建结果稳定可靠。通过对降水重建序列与周边地区树轮降水重建序列和树轮年表资料的对比分析,发现该重建序列与周边地区的树轮重建降水的干湿阶段变化具有一定的同步性,并对西北地区极端干旱历史事件有良好的响应。多窗谱分析发现,重建降水序列具有4.2a、3.4 a、3.2 a、2.6 a的准周期变化;滑动T检验法发现,重建降水序列在1887年、1908年发生过降水突变。The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from Shandan.Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations were significant between the tree-ring chronologies and previous year′s August to present year′s June（A to J） total precipitation,and the correlation coefficient was 0.654.Using DHG（RES）tree-ring chronology,the previous year′s August to present year′s June precipitation during the last 224 years was reconstructed,with an explained variance of 42.8%.The reconstructed equation was stable by crossing-test.The reconstruction precipitation is compared to historical archives and other tree-ring reconstructions in Northwest China.The results reveal common climatic extremes and change over much of Northwest China.Many of these events have had profound impacts on the peoples over the past several centuries.The reconstructed precipitation series for Middle Hexi Corridor during the last 224 a had significant period cycles of 4.2 a,3.4 a,3.2 a,2.6 a.The abrupt change of precipitation occurred in 1887,1908.

关 键 词：山丹 树轮年表 降水重建 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]