基于信息扩散理论的中国粮食主产区水旱灾害风险评估  

Risk assessment of flood and drought in major grain-producing areas based on information diffusion theory

作　　者：刘亚彬[1] 刘黎明[1] 许迪[2] 章少辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水利研究所,北京100048

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2010年第8期1-7,共7页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目课题(2006BAD20B07);国家自然科学基金项目(40940001)

摘　　要：水旱灾害频发是影响中国粮食安全供给的主要制约因素。该文基于信息扩散理论的风险分析模型,根据198-2008年期间检索得到的共享数据平台资料,对中国13个粮食主产省(区)的水旱灾害开展风险评估,综合对比分析粮食主产区的水旱灾害风险状况及其空间分布特点。结果表明,中国13个粮食主产省份面临的水旱灾害风险压力均较大且旱灾风险要大于水灾风险。粮食主产区的水灾风险空间分布格局为南部长江中下游省份多以中度风险为主,东北部和中部黄淮海地区主要为低风险区,而旱灾风险则是东北部和中部黄淮海地区以高、中风险为主,南部长江中下游省份的风险相对较低。Flood and drought are important factors which influence stable supply of major grain-producing areas,and threat food self-sufficient security in China.In this paper,flood and drought risk of 13 major grain-producing provinces were assessed by using information diffusion theory.Flood and drought risk level was analyzed under four different of hazard context.At the same time,flood and drought risk conditions were systematically compared,as well as time-space distribution.The results showed that,pressures of flood and drought risk in 13 major grain-producing provinces were all bigger,and drought risk was more serious than flood risk.Flood risk was more serious in southern major grain-producing province and drought risk was more serious at northern and the Yellow-Huaihe-Haihe Plain in major grain-producing province of China.The study on risk assessment of flood and drought provides support for risk prevention and decision-making.

关 键 词：风险评估 水旱 灾害 信息扩散 粮食主产区 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学] F326.11[农业科学—农业基础科学]