我国2010～2050年劳动力供给与需求预测  

Labor Supply and Labor Demand Forecasting in China,2010-2050

作　　者：齐明珠[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学,北京100070

出　　处：《人口研究》2010年第5期76-87,共12页Population Research

基　　金：国家人口和计划生育委员会人口发展战略与“十二五”规划研究课题“中国未来中长期人口发展与就业趋势研究”的部分内容

摘　　要：文章采取人口预测、经济预测等多种预测方法,对我国2010～2050年劳动力供给和需求进行了预测。预测结果表明,2016年后我国劳动力供给和需求的关系将发生反转,即使总和生育率到2020年提升至更替水平2.1并假定一直保持不变,我国也将长期面临劳动力短缺的问题,低生育水平的巨大惯性对我国中长期劳动力市场具有不可逆转的影响。文章通过比较不同生育水平下劳动力供给和需求之间矛盾的阶段性特点,提出短期促进就业,中长期促进人口、经济健康持续发展的全方位政策。This paper forecasts labor supply and labor demand from 2010 to 2050 in China by adopting various population and economy forecasting methods. Results show that relationship between labor supply and labor demand will reverse after the year 2016. Even if total fertility rate increases to replacement level in the year 2020 and assumes unchanging trend in the future, China will still face long - term labor shortages, since the huge inertia of low birth rate has an irreversible effects to China labor market in the long run. By comparing labor supply and labor demand under different fertility scenarios, this paper proposes comprehensive policy suggestions related to short - term employment enhancement and long -term promotion of healthy and sustainable development of population and economy.

关 键 词：劳动力供给 劳动力需求 人口预测 经济预测 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]