我国经济结构动态变动后的下一步  

The Next Step after the Dynamic Changes of Economic Structure in China

作　　者：周阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《改革》2010年第9期21-26,共6页Reform

摘　　要：经济的非平衡增长近年来在宏观经济的研究中广受关注。利用1952～2009年的样本数据,分析检验发现,我国经济具有非平衡增长的基本特征,这导致了我国经济结构的升级演进路径呈现出结构转变性质;在所选择的样本期内,农业对经济增长的拉动作用呈现出倒U型曲线的特征,而服务业对经济的贡献则表现出逐步增加的势头。另外,经验分析的结果表明,我国经济可能正经历长期的结构调整。因此,采取合适的措施使我国经济持续长久增长至关重要。Economic non-balanced growth has been paid attention in macroeconomic studies recently. Utilizing the sample data from 1952 to 2009, we found that China＇ s economy has the basic characteristic of non-balanced growth, which causes the evolution path of economic structure to demonstrate structure transition property. During the selected sample period, the role of agriculture in boosting the economy displays inverted U-curve feature, while the service sector contribution to the e- conomy shows gradual increase tendency. Additionally, the results of empirical analysis show that our country＇ s economy may be going through a long-term structural adjusmaent, because of which it is fairly important to promote our country＇s economy sustained growth by appropriate measures.

关 键 词：非平衡增长 结构突变 经济结构 升级演进 

分 类 号：F121[经济管理—世界经济]