中国工业部门能源消费反弹效应的估算——基于技术进步视角的实证研究  

Estimating the Rebound Effect of Energy Consumption of Industrial Sectors in China Based on the Perspective of Technological Advancement

作　　者：国涓[1,2,3] 凌煜[3] 郭崇慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学系统工程研究所,大连116024 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [3]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025

出　　处：《资源科学》2010年第10期1839-1845,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目资助(编号:70901016);国家社科基金项目资助(编号:05BJY013);辽宁省创新团队项目资助(编号:2007T050)

摘　　要：反弹效应是能源经济学中一个重要的研究课题,它的大小关系到能源政策的实施效果,在国内尚缺乏关于工业部门的实证检验。因此,本文基于新古典经济增长理论,按照索罗余数的思想估算了中国工业部门1979年-2007年的技术进步贡献率,并利用这一估算结果测算了1979年-2007年中国工业部门能源消费的反弹效应。实证研究的结果表明,1979年-2007年中国工业部门的平均能源反弹效应约为46.38%,而能源反弹效应总的变化趋势成递减状态。由技术进步而产生的能源效率提高,虽然没有使中国工业部门实现预期的节能目标,但总的呈现出能源节约的特征。本文研究的政策含义为:在依靠技术进步提高能源效率的同时,要注意能源价格政策、税收政策等的宏观调控,以实现预期的节能目标。Rebound effect is an important issue in energy economics having received much attention in that the rebound effect of energy consumption directly affects the effectiveness of energy policies. According to a universally accepted economic view, the rebound effect determines the pure efficiency effect. Energy consumption would continue to grow even if energy efficiency is improved under the condition of the efficiency elasticity of energy demand being higher than 1. The rebound effect shows varying definitions in the energy economics literature. Most studies are only related to theoretical issues, showing less regarding analysis and estimation of the size of the potential rebound effects. On the other hand, most of empirical studies are associated merely with the residential sector or fuel consumption for transportation purposes, lacking empirical tests of the industrial sector. By adopting a thermodynamic point of view, this paper presents a framework incorporating three input factors （i.e., capital, labor and energy） of neoclassical product functions based on a brief review of related economic literature. Data of energy, economy and capital of industrial sectors in China during the period 1978-2007, the widely used econometric methods, as well as a ridge regression model were jointly utilized to estimate the contribution of technological progress in the industrial sectors in China. The size of rebound effect based on technological progress during the period 1979-2007 was subsequently calculated. Results show that the average size of rebound effect in the study period was roughly 46.38%, showing a generally decreasing trend with certain fluctuations. This indicates that improving the technological level of energy consumption is gradually becoming a critical tool to effectively utilize and reserve energy. Technological progress plays a role in improving energy efficiency; however, the expected goal of energy saving has not realized in the industrial sectors but displays a promising energy saving trend in the lon

关 键 词：反弹效应 索罗余数 技术进步 能源消费 岭回归 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F424F206