四川地区1960年-2004年降水集中程度研究  

A Study on Precipitation Concentration in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2004

作　　者：朱丹[1] 肖天贵[1] 谌芸 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,成都610225 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《资源科学》2010年第10期1910-1917,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目:"青藏高原东北部强降水天气过程的演变特征及其机理研究"(编号:40675059);公益性行业(气象)科研专项:"中尺度对流性天气诊断分析方法研究"(编号:GYHY200906003)

摘　　要：利用四川地区1960年-2004年121个观测站逐日降水资料,运用降水集中度和集中期的定义,以及小波分析,合成分析等方法,分区域对四川地区降水时空分布特征和变化规律进行讨论。结果表明:1960年-2004年,四川地区降水集中度和集中期能够定量的表征降水量在时空场上的非均匀性。整个四川地区降水的降水集中度呈减小趋势。东部盆地和西部高原的局部地区,枯水年出现旱涝的可能性很大,南部地区降水的可预报性较强。四川东部降水逐年减少,并在很长一段时间内转人干旱时期,西部降水短期内逐年有所增加,南部将转人干旱时期。Based on daily precipitation data observed at 121 stations in Sichuan Province during the period 1960-2004, and employing the concepts of precipitation-concentration degree （PCD） and precipitation-concentration period （PCP）, wavelet analysis and synthetic analysis, the authors systematically analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal distributions and variations in precipitation in Sichuan Province, southwestern China. Results demonstrate that the PCD and PCP can quantitatively characterize the heterogeneity of precipitation over space and time. The PCD generally showed a decreasing trend in Sichuan Province. The PCD of the eastern basin area was found to be smallest in Sichuan Province. It was also found that the PCD showed a weakening trend over the entire Sichuan Province. The PCD was greatest and the PCP remained stable over the western plateau area. The precipitation over the western plateau was relatively more concentrated, but the maximum precipitation of pentad seemed to be stable. Therefore, the weather predictability in the region is high. Droughts/floods are likely to occur at some local areas of the eastern basin and western plateau in the dry years. The precipitation predictability of the southern areas is stronger. In order to understand the mechanisms of the interactions between climate change and water resources, we made a synthesis on three regions in Sichuan Province. Droughts/floods are very likely to occur over part of the eastern basin areas in the dry years. Annual variation of droughts/floods presents continuity. The time of the maximum precipitation of pentad occurring each year remains invariant over the western plateau. The concentration of precipitation throughout the region is of local regularity. The southern area showed the same situation as the eastern basin did, prone to droughts/floods in the dry years but with high weather predictability. Using the wavelet analysis of annual precipitation in the eastern basin of Sichuan, it was indicated that there exist three m

关 键 词：降水集中度 降水集中期 时空分布 小波分析 合成分析 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]