西北内陆县域气候变化及其对河川径流的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on the River Runoff in Intra-county of Northwest Interior Region

作　　者：操信春[1,2] 吴普特[1,2,3] 郝仕龙[2,4] 赵西宁[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨陵712100 [2]国家节水灌溉杨凌工程技术研究中心,陕西杨陵712100 [3]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨陵712100 [4]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨陵712100

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2010年第5期26-29,34,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40701092);国家863计划项目(2006AA100217);国家科技支撑计划(2007BAD88B10)

摘　　要：根据民乐县及祁连县气象站点1958-2008年气温、降水资料,结合民乐县历年水文数据,利用Mann-Ken-dall秩相关分析法等方法分析了民乐、祁连县1958-2008年气温、降水和民乐地表径流量的变化,在建立定量化关系的基础上研究了气候变化对民乐县地表径流的影响并对未来径流量做出预测。研究表明,气温的变化可分为基准期(1958-1986年)和增温期(1987-2008年),后者增温速率达0.62℃/10 a,且全年各季度整体增加;降水量总体上呈上升趋势,增幅为19.5 mm/10 a,突变年(1978年)后降水量的波动性增大;历年降水量有减少趋势,受气候变化影响,径流量的年际变化增大,气温与降水对径流变化的贡献相反。未来径流量还有减小的趋势,对此,提出了调整产业和种植结构、节水灌溉、综合利用水资源等措施以应对。Using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation analysis method to analyze the changes of temperature,rainfall and the runoff in Minle county,first,we established the quantitative relationships of the climate changing and the changes in surface runoff,and based on which we predict the runoff of the river in future.The results showed that： the climate changing time can be divided into two stages,the base period（1958-1986） and the warming period（1987-2008）.The warming speeds of the latter periods is 0.62℃/10 a,and increased all over the year-round.The general trend of upward,the rate of increase is 19.5 mm/10 a,the volatility of the precipitation is increasing since the mutation year（1978）,there is a decrease trends in precipitation over the years,the annual changes in precipitation is increased,just owing to the climate changing.On the contrary,the contribution of the rainfall to the runoff was different.The trends of the runoff in future will be reduced.Moreover,we proposed several measures as the response to this matter,including make adjustment to the industries and cropping pattern,use water saving irrigation,make full use of the water resources and so on.

关 键 词：县域 气候变化 河川径流 预测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P332.4[天文地球—水文科学]