欧盟主权债务危机及其对中国的启示:一个主权货币理论的视角  

The EU Sovereign Debt Crisis and its Implications on China: a modern money alternative to a global currency

作　　者：刘新华[1] 白玫[1] 李妮妮[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《西部金融》2010年第9期14-21,共8页West China Finance

摘　　要：2010年全球经济似有走出危机的迹象,而欧盟区国家发生的主权债务危机使情势更不明朗。对于中国而言,中央及地方政府投资、举债以及银行信贷过度膨胀等可能导致通胀和资产市场价格泡沫的担忧进一步引发关注。本文基于主权货币理论,即浮动汇率制度下的"一个国家,一种货币"的分析框架,认为拥有独立财政和货币政策的主权国家有足够的政策空间发展本国经济。欧盟各成员国统一的货币政策和各自独立的财政政策是其债务危机发生的根源。中国实行资本管制基础上的浮动汇率制度将是改革的方向,超主权货币既不需要也不可行。中国大规模的政府赤字和银行信贷扩张并不会出现诸如欧盟成员国的主权债务危机。但投资和信贷,尤其是地方政府的非主权债务需要严格监管。通过政府和市场的协调配合促进就业和地区均衡发展才是经济可持续发展的必由之路。The global economy seems to see the light of recovery in 2010.However,some Euro zone countries are now facing an acute government that could conceivably threaten the entire euro project.The Chinese government has started to worry about its high government deficit,inflation and a speculative boom in real estate and equities-that could spill over to financial institutions.This paper will adopt the Chartalist approach,or what Charles Goodhart refers to as the ＂one country,one currency＂ floating rate regime because it provides more room for each sovereign government to adopt independent fiscal （and monetary） policy.A universal currency and independent fiscal policies of EU countries is the root of crisis.The paper argues that the supranational monetary regime China proposed is neither desirable nor is it politically feasible.Given China＇s use of a sovereign currency,the heavy debt of state-owned enterprises related to over lending and of local governments while problematic do not pose the sort of dangers that we see in Greece and other PIIGs.Hence we will advocate more spending,including direct job creation,to materialize a sustainable growth.

关 键 词：主权债务危机 信贷膨胀 地方政府债务 

分 类 号：F830.1[经济管理—金融学]