西北区秋季短期气象要素客观预报检验评估  

Verification and Assessment of Autumn Short-term Objective Forecast of Meteorological Elements in Northwest China

作　　者：刘世祥[1] 陶健红[1] 张铁军[1] 尚大成[1] 伏晓红[1] 张静[1] 宋秀玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2010年第3期346-351,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局2007年多轨道气象业务建设项目

摘　　要：应用数值预报释用技术,建立了西北地区短期气象要素客观预报系统。本文使用系统的客观预报资料,结合实时气象观测资料,对2006年秋季气温和降水量的客观预报进行检验评估。结果表明,系统对连续性变化气象要素最高气温、最低气温的预报效果较好,预报准确率达到70%左右,在天气预报业务中具有较明显的指导作用,而对非连续气象要素降水量预报效果较差,预报准确率约34%。气温预报的好坏与大气的稳定程度关系较为密切,降水量预报准确率的高低与相对湿度关系较为密切。分析认为按月建立的气温预报方程,其预报准确率较按季建立的方程可提高10%以上。Based on the numerical prediction interpretation techniques and forecast experiences,the short-term objective forecast system of meteorological elements for Northwest China is established.With the aid of meteorological data of real-time observation,the verification and assessments of objective forecast from the system-output for air temperature and precipitation in winter of 2006 have been performed.The results show：（1） The forecast accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature is much higher than that of precipitation with the accurate rates of 70% and 34%,respectively.（2） The factors affecting the forecast accuracies of temperature and precipitation are the static stability of atmosphere and relative humidity.（3） If the system established on month scale,the forecast accuracy of temperature is expected to have a 10% improvement.

关 键 词：气象要素客观预报 检验评估 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]