2005年成都市麻疹模拟实时监测与预警研究  

Simulating Real-time Surveillance and Early Warning of Measles in Chengdu

作　　者：杜长慧[1] 殷菲[2] 尹仲良[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《职业卫生与病伤》2010年第5期261-264,共4页Occupational Health and Damage

基　　金：成都市卫生局重大医学联合攻关项目(0611)

摘　　要：目的探索前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在麻疹早期预警中的应用。方法模拟实时监测,采用前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量,对成都市2005年麻疹数据进行逐日前瞻性分析。结果以6月份预警结果为例,6月10日发出预警信号,该预警信号包括的天数为2 d,所包括的乡镇街道为武侯区的簇桥街道和金花桥街道。结论前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量能充分利用数据信息,及时探测到传染病的聚集性发病。Objective To investigate the application of prospective space-time permutation scan statistic in the early warning of measles outbreak.Methods The prospective analysis on measles epidemic data in Chengdu in 2009 was conducted by using prospective space-time permutation scan statistic.Results For example,a warning was given on 10 June,which lasted for 2 days and covered Cuqiao street and Jinhua street in Wuhou District.Conclusion The prospective space-time permutation scan statistic could make full use of the data and timely detect the outbreak of communicable disease.

关 键 词：传染病监测 聚集性探测 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]