基于Sobol法的TOPMODEL模型全局敏感性分析  

Global sensitivity analysis of TOPMODEL parameters based on Sobol method

作　　者：任启伟[1] 陈洋波[2] 周浩澜[2] 徐会军[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电技术中心,广东广州510635 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第19期91-94,107,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50479033);广东省科技计划基金(2009A030302003)

摘　　要：Sobol法是最具代表性的全局敏感性分析方法。应用Sobol全局敏感性分析方法分析TOPMODEL模型的参数对Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数、总水量平衡误差系数、低水流量误差系数和高水流量误差系数4个目标函数的敏感性。通过对白盆珠水库、流溪河水库的分析结果表明,较敏感的参数有M、lnT0、Sr0和Rv,Sobol方法给出的定量敏感度能衡量敏感性表现的差异,并反映出了模型"异参同效"的现象。The Sobol′s method is the most representative global sensitivity analysis method,and it is a quantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output.By Sobol global sensitivity analysis method,the sensitivity of TOPMODEL parameters to 4 object function of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,total water balance error coefficient,low discharge error coefficient and high discharge error coefficient is analyzed.With the application of Sobol′s method to Baipenzhu and Liuxihe reservoirs,it shows that sensitive parameters include M,lnT0、Sr0 and Rv and the quantitative sensitivity given by Sobol′ model can measure the different performance of sensitivity,which can reflect the phenomenon of ＂equifinality for different parameters＂.

关 键 词：Sobol法 TOPMODEL 全局敏感性 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]