基于熵权的公路BOT项目建设风险的模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on highway BOT project integrated risk based on entropy weight methods

作　　者：王首绪[1] 杨静[1] 郑秀珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《交通科学与工程》2010年第3期89-94,共6页Journal of Transport Science and Engineering

摘　　要：以项目进度、项目质量、项目成本、项目安全及项目环境5个因素作为公路BOT项目建设风险评价的基本准则,构建了包含政治风险、社会风险、经济风险、管理风险、技术风险及自然风险等6种一级指标的公路BOT项目建设风险指标体系.采用源于热力学中熵的概念及计算方法,确定各风险评价指标的权值,通过构建模糊综合评价模型,计算项目面临风险的大小,为项目决策者对规避建设过程中的综合风险提供决策依据.实例分析表明,利用基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型对公路BOT项目建设风险进行评价是可行的.Taking the project schedule ,quality, safety, cost and environment as the basic principles of the highway BOT construction project risk assessment, the highway BOT construction project risk index system is built including the political risk, social risk, financial risk, management risk, technological risk and natural risk. Using the concept of entropy from thermodynamics and entropy method to determine the risk assessment index, and constructing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the project risk value is calculated to provide reliable decision-making basis for the comprehensive risk aversion for the project decision-makers. This could show that it is feasible to assess the highway BOT construction projects integrated risk by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight.

关 键 词：公路BOT项目 熵权 风险值 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]