台风影响期间的河道水位设防标准研究  

Water Level Design Criteria Study Under Typhoon Influence

作　　者：蒋济同[1] 李景龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第10期113-120,共8页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50679076);国家防汛抗旱总指挥部项目(20060120)资助

摘　　要：针对台风影响期间的河道设防标准提出1种新的计算方法(三维复合极值分布模型),同时比较规范推荐的Pearson-Ⅲ方法以及其它几种适线方法的计算结果,在三维概率预测模型和单因素概率模型的比较过程中,阐述了三维复合极值分布模型在样本选取、多重致灾因素的选取、计算结果稳定性等多方面的先进性和合理性。As typhoon disaster occurs frequently, especially, great loss is caused by gravity channel and dyke burst because of typhoon disaster factor such as rainstorm. This paper proposes a new probability model （three-dimensional compound extreme value distribution model） in calculating water level design criteria in case of typhoon disaster. By comparing Pearson- Ⅲ method suggested by the Seaport Hydrology Standard with other fitting methods, advancement and rationality of the new model is shown in sample selection, various disaster factor selection and stability of the result.

关 键 词：联合概率 设防标准 台风 复合极值分布 

分 类 号：TV8[水利工程—水利水电工程]