中国的工业产出与能源需求  

The Industrial Output and the Energy Demand of China

作　　者：赵岩[1] 王蕾[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]中国人民银行研究生部,北京100083

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2010年第5期20-26,共7页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(08JZD0015);国家社科基金青年项目(08CJL012)

摘　　要：根据三要素生产函数,从统计角度分析中国的能源消费与工业产出之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:工业产出与能源消费、资本和劳动力要素投入之间存在着长期稳定的关系。长期来看,工业产出每增加一个百分点,会伴随着能源消费增加0.7个百分点,而且能源消费在时间上领先于整个工业经济的发展。这一结论的政策含义在于:未来一段时间内要维持经济的持续稳定增长,能源安全必然构成越来越突出的问题,政府应大力推进旨在提高能源利用效率的管理技术改革和产业结构调整。在当前市场机制不完善的条件下,适当的能源先行发展战略是合适的。Based on the three -factor production function, the paper analyses the dynamic correlations of China＇ s energy consumption and industrial output from the angle of statistics. The empirical results show that there exist long- term stable relationships between industrial output and energy consumption, and capital and la- bor inputs. In the long run, one percentage of industrial output would be accompa- nied by 0.7 percentage increase of energy consumption, and the energy consumption leads the industrial economy growth. The conclusion has important policy implica- tions ： to maintain the steady and continual economic growth within a certain period in the future, energy safety is certainly becoming a more and more prominent problem. Therefore, the government should promote the technological reform and industrial restructuring in order to increase energy consumption efficiency. Under the imperfect free market mechanism, we should give priority to the development of energy sector.

关 键 词：工业产出 能源需求 生产函数 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]