从技术底层分析地震应急综合评估系统的运行特点——以天津市为例  

Analyze the Characteristics of Earthquake Emergency Comprehensive Estimation System from Foundation Technique: Taking Tianjin as An Example

作　　者：刘双庆[1] 张晖[1] 赵颖[1] 张楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《山西地震》2010年第3期39-44,48,共7页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

基　　金：浙江省科技厅协作项目(2008C13043);天津市地震局局长基金课题(091006)

摘　　要：利用Matlab及Arcgis软件,将天津市地震应急综合评估系统自2007年底以来人工触发的地震灾害评估结果进行了统计分析。从技术底层梳理了整套评估系统涉及的有关数据库、企业服务总线、灾害评估系统、辅助决策系统、Web服务等各功能模块所处的位置及作用,并使用流程图展示了综合评估系统涉及的技术细节。通过统计分析,得出近两年来触发的地震震级大小、震中、死亡人数、计算耗时等分布特征以及震害损失的分布特点,指出以后工作中需要增添哪些分布特点的人工触发地震事件。进一步分析震害结果得出建议:造价比矩阵值需适当上调,人员伤亡比系数下调,经济损失应增加按建筑用途和因经济活动中断而出现链式损失效应的灾损因素。Utilizing the Matlab and Arcgis softwares,the earthquake disaster estimation results,trigged artificially,from the Tianjin earthquake emergency comprehensive estimation system since 2007 are analyzed in this paper.From foundation technique,the orders and functions of modules involved in the whole system,including Oracle database,ESB,disaster estimation system,assistant decision system,Web service are combed,and a clear flow chart is made to reveal technique details in the system.Through the statistical analysis,the distribution characteristics of artificial earthquake magnitudes,epicenters,number of people died,calculation time of every event and disaster loess distribution feature in recent two years are obtained,which lead to know what kinds of artificial trigged earthquake events should be added in the future.Based on further analysis on earthquake disaster results,some suggestions are proposed,such as increasing the cost matrix values,decreasing the ratio of injured and died people,and considering extra economic loss according to the construction purposes and factor of economic chain rupture.

关 键 词：地震灾害 震灾评估 应急综合评估系统 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]