基于距离函数的区域性暴雨灾害风险预估方法研究  

Study on a Disaster Risk Prediction Method for Regional Heavy Rain Events based on Euclidean Distance Function

作　　者：邵末兰[1] 张宁[1] 岳阳[2] 孟英杰[1] 张萍萍[1] 谢萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉中心气象台,武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象局科技处,武汉430074

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2010年第3期268-273,278,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：湖北省气象局基金项目"湖北省暴雨灾害预估方法研究"

摘　　要：以湖北省历史暴雨灾害资料为基础,筛选、确定暴雨灾害个例,采用正态概率密度函数、区间平移和欧氏距离函数等方法,构建湖北省5—9月区域性暴雨天气过程强度等级、可能产生的灾情损失值风险预估模型。应用结果表明,该模型对区域性暴雨强度等级风险预估的正确率达到66.7%,对受灾人口、农作物受灾面积风险预估的正确率分别达到62.5%、55.6%,但对直接经济损失的风险预估效果略差。The cases of torrential rain were chosen based on the history data of heavy rain disasters in Hubei Province.The probability density function of the normal distribution,the interval movement method and the Euclidean Distance Function were used to establish the model for the strength degree of regional heavy rain and the possible loss risk prediction of disaster month by month from May to September in Hubei province.The application results show that the risk-estimated accuracy for the strength degree of regional heavy rain,the population affected by disasters and crop area affected by disasters is up to 66.7%,62.5% and 55.6% respectively,and the risk-estimated accuracy for direct economic loss is slightly worse according to the model.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害 等级风险 预估方法 欧氏距离函数 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]