基于广义伽马分布的系统可靠性增长预测  

System Reliability Growth Prediction Based on Generalized Gamma Distribution

作　　者：孙永全[1] 郭建英[1] 孙永国[2] 于春雨[1] 丁喜波[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学传感器与可靠性工程研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]哈尔滨理工大学机械动力工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报》2010年第9期1131-1134,共4页Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60072002);国家"八六三"计划项目(2009AA042407)

摘　　要：研究了系统可靠性增长预测方法.论证了可靠性增长试验中系统失效时间服从广义伽马分布,进而预测系统未来失效时间及可靠性,给出了点估计和区间估计,并引入标准差和比例系数进行预测精度分析.实际算例验证了该方法的有效性.The system reliability growth prediction method is established based on generalized gamma distribution. The failure time obeys the generalized gamma distribution is proved, and then system future failure time and reliability are predicted by giving point estimations and interval estimations. Finally, prediction accuracy is analyzed by introducing standard deviation and proportional coefficient. An example is presented to show the validity.

关 键 词：非齐次Poisson过程 可靠性增长预测 广义伽马分布 预测精度 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]