年径流量水文指标的灰色概率预测  

Gray Probability Prediction for Hydrological Index of Annual Runoff

作　　者：王治中[1] 张亚智 

机构地区：[1]杨凌职业技术学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]洋县引酉工程灌溉管理局,陕西洋县723300

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2010年第5期42-44,共3页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：在研究分析农业生产条件中,经常会遇到一些"灾变"问题。为了科学应对"灾变"问题发生所给工农业生产带来的困难,超前预测"灾变"发生多大概率的可能性是很有实际意义的。作者以某区域年径流量历史统计资料,应用灰色概率预测方法,对该区域作了分析预测,结果与实际比较接近。在客观世界中,不论是自然系统还是社会系统,有许多现象发生并不严格具有无后效性,所以应用灰色理论来描述马尔柯夫过程,能够较合理地反映过程的灰色特征。In agricultural researches,the problems about cateclysms would be often met with.In order to deal with the cateclysms which would bring some difficulties in industrial and agricultural productions,it is of practical significance to predict the cateclysms scientifically.Here,the gray probability prediction method is applied to the analysis and predition for a certain area by using its annual runoff data,and the result is approaching to the practical condition.In objectivity,it could reflect the gray characteristics of the process rationally to apply the gray theroy to describe Markovian process.

关 键 词：年径流量 灰色 概率预测 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]