动态拨备规则的西班牙经验及其在中国实施的可行性分析  

Dynamic Provisioning: Spain's Experience and Its Implications for China

作　　者：徐明东[1] 肖宏 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433 [2]重庆银监局综合处,重庆400011

出　　处：《财经研究》2010年第10期37-47,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70903013);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(08JC790022);上海市晨光计划项目(09CG05)

摘　　要：文章基于预期损失模型分析了动态贷款损失拨备规则的作用机制,并总结了西班牙实施动态拨备规则的模式和实施效果。研究表明,动态拨备规则能提高银行体系的风险缓冲能力和增强其稳健性,并可作为危机后抑制银行顺周期行为的逆周期资本监管措施的重要补充工具。文章认为我国短期内全面推行动态拨备规则的条件和时机并不具备,但我们应借鉴西班牙动态拨备经验,与《新巴塞尔资本协议》的国内实施时间表相结合,适时改革和推出符合中国国情的银行业前瞻性拨备制度,提高国内银行的风险管理和抵御冲击能力。Based on the expected loss model,the paper analyzes the mechanism of the dynamic loan loss provisioning and Spain＇s experience.The results show that dynamic provisioning is an effective tool to strengthen banks＇ risk buffer and their stability and could be taken as an important complementary tool of countercyclical capital supervision.It holds that in the short term the conditions and timing of implementing dynamic provisioning in China are not available,but China should learn from Spain＇s experience,combine with the New Basel Capital Accord,and put forward a forward-looking provisioning system to improve domestic banks＇ ability of risk management.

关 键 词：贷款损失拨备 顺周期 动态拨备规则 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学]