中国服务业发展:异质性假说及其验证——“金砖四国”比较的视角  

The Heterogeneity and Path Selection of China's Service Industry Development——Based on the "BRICs" Comparative Perspective

作　　者：张国强[1] 郑江淮[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《经济管理》2010年第10期10-19,共10页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"现代服务业发展战略研究"(08AJY046)

摘　　要：本文依据异质性假说并利用时间序列数据,对"金砖四国"服务业发展进行了实证分析和比较研究,结果表明,人均收入、城市化率、工业与服务业效率差、外商直接投资等变量对各国服务业发展的影响存在较大差异,从而使各国服务业发展呈现出明显的异质性;同巴西、俄罗斯和印度相比,中国服务业的发展水平明显滞后,而在教育支出、服务业效率、政府消费支出等方面的差距是造成这种滞后的主要因素。实证结果还表明,提高人均收入、推进城市化发展、增加教育投入和政府消费支出对促进中国服务业发展有显著作用。最后,本文简要说明了实证分析和研究结论所蕴含的政策涵义。In this paper, based on the empirical analysis and international comparative study of BRICs＇ service industry development on the basis of heterogeneity hypothesis and time serial data, we find that, per capita income, urbanization, industrial and service efficiency difference, foreign direct investment and etc. have biggish different effects on service value-added in different nation, which caused the service＇s heterogeneity in BRICs. Further, we find that, Compared with Brazil, Russia, Indian, China＇s service industry obviously lagged, the primary causes of which are the differences of the dominating economic variables including education expenditure, service efficiency, government consumption expenditure and etc. between China and other＇s nation. Then, we also find that, increas- ing per capita income, advancing urbanization, enhancing education input and government consumption expenditure, have prominent effect on China＇s service industry. Lastly, the policy meanings of our results are also discussed briefly.

关 键 词：金砖四国 服务业 异质性 假说 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]