基于幕景分析法的土地开发整理规划环境影响评价——以江苏省涟水县为例  

Environmental influence evaluation of land development and arrangement based on scenarios analysis:A study on Lianshui County,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：方斌[1] 杨叶[1] 雷广海[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210046 [2]南京农业大学土地管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《地理研究》2010年第10期1853-1862,共10页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(40971105);江苏省社科基金资助项目(08CSJ009);江苏省软科学基金资助项目(BR2008057)

摘　　要：土地开发整理规划实施结果对规划区域内的生态环境产生重要影响。有关这方面的研究理论在我国尚少见报导,具体评价的方法、指标体系及模型构建均未形成规范性体系。本文以江苏省涟水县为例,运用幕景分析方法对《涟水县土地开发整理规划》(2000～2010)进行分析,并建立评价模型对规划前后的自然环境效应进行评价。结果表明:1997年涟水县的自然环境效应值低于2000年,其原因在于该县在这三年间,严格控制建设对耕地的占用,通过土地开发整理补充了更多的耕地。2010年自然态将来幕景得出的环境质量是下降的,原因是建设对农用地和未利用地的破碎化,加大了斑块密度。而2010年干扰态将来幕景与自然态相比,其自然生态正效应得到明显提升,增长了0.6736个百分点,表明合理设计土地开发整理规划对促进区域生态环境健康具有十分重要的作用。Land development and consolidation plan is bound to affect ecological environmental conditions within the planned area.However,the specific evaluation method,index system and modeling algorithm should be standardized.By taking Lianshui County of Jiangsu Province as an example,Land Development and Arrangement Plan of Lianshui County（2000～2010） was analyzed,and the affection was compared by a evaluation model of scenarios.The result shows that the influence in 1997 was lower than in 2000 in Lianshui County.This can be explained as： during the three years,not only the occupation of cultivated land has been strictly controlled,but more cultivated lands have been transferred also.Environmental quality declined in 2010 because of without planning.The possible reason is that the construction of land fragmented farmland and unutilized land,which increases density of plaques.In comparison of future scenarios without planning and with planning in 2010,it is indicated that eco-environmental conditions could obviously increase by 0.6736 percentage point.This shows that proper land development and consolidation plan plays an important role in promoting a healthy eco-environment within the planned area.

关 键 词：土地开发整理规划 涟水县 幕景分析法 环境影响 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]