美国经济危机原因及其影响的新解释——基于经济长波、货币供给与国际竞争的视角  

A New Interpretation of the Causes and Impacts of U.S. Economic Crisis:from the Perspective of Economic Long Wave,Money Supply and International Competition

作　　者：杨文进[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310015

出　　处：《当代财经》2010年第10期5-15,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：美国经济危机是其新长波运行到顶后以朱格拉周期形式表现的一次调整,美国经济由此将步入缓慢增长的动荡时期。为满足长波扩张对巨额货币供给的需要,20世纪80年代美国金融体系进行了以金融创新为主要内容的重构,由此支撑了美国经济长达20多年的快速增长,并极大提升了美国的国际地位。但随着长波的演进,不仅内部的扩张动力逐渐衰竭,而且外部的相对竞争力也在快速下降,实体经济对新增货币的吸纳能力减弱,由此金融创新深化所创造的巨大货币供给就只能转向"次贷"和高杠杆的金融衍生产品。当实体经济与虚拟经济的背离达到一定程度时,经济危机也就不可避免。美国经济危机最终转化为世界经济危机,则是因为各主要国家之间的经济周期出现了高度的同步性,是它们之间相互叠加共振的结果。The American economic crisis is an adjustment of the cyclical performance of Juglar Cycle after its new long-wave reached the peak.From that time on,American economy has entered a turbulent period of slow growth.In order to meet the needs of the long-wave expansion on the huge money supply,in 1980s there was a reconstruction of American financial system for financial innova-tions,which has supported the rapid growth of American economy over 20 years and greatly en-hanced its international status.But along with the evolution of the long-wave,not only the internal power for expansion is gradually losing,but also the external relative competitiveness is rapidly de-clining,the absorptive capacity of the entity economy for newly-added money is weakened.Thus the huge money supply created by the deepening financial innovations can only turn to the financial derivative products of＂subprime＂and high leverage.When the entity economy deviates from the vir-tual economy to a certain level,the economic crisis becomes unavoidable.The American economic crisis has finally turned into the world economic crisis;the reason is that there appears a high degree synchronization of economic cycle between the major countries,which is the result of overlying reso-nance between them.

关 键 词：经济长波 货币供给 经济危机 金融体系 

分 类 号：F113.7[经济管理—国际贸易]