成渝高速公路交通增长与经济发展关系分析  

Analysis of Relationship Between Cheng-Yu Expressway Traffic Increase and Economic Development

作　　者：初克波[1] 王英涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川省交通厅公路规划勘察设计研究院,成都市610041 [2]四川省工程咨询研究院,成都市610041

出　　处：《公路》2010年第10期147-149,共3页Highway

摘　　要：交通需求历来被认为是社会经济活动所派生的需求,准确分析历史的交通增长与经济发展的相关关系,在社会经济发展预测的基础上,合理确定未来交通增长,是公路建设项目前期工作的重要部分。针对成渝高速公路交通量资料,结合社会经济发展,对建设期、运营期不同时段的弹性系数进行了分析,以期对新建高速公路项目的交通需求预测提供参考。实证分析表明,高速公路通道的交通经济弹性系数呈现典型的"抛物线"形态。Transportation need has always been regarded as the need derived from the social economic activities, the important component of the highway construction preliminary work is to accurately analyse the relevance between historical traffic increase and economic development, and reasonably calculate the future traffic increase based on the social economic development forecast. Referring to the Cheng-Yu Expressway traffic volume data, combined with the social and economic development, an analysis on the elasticity coefficient of the different time period during the constructional and operational stage is given, aiming at providing the reference to the newly built expressway＇s traffic need forecast. The empirical analysis shows that the traffic economic elasticity coefficient of the expressway appears to be typical parabolic curve.

关 键 词：交通量增长 经济发展 弹性系数 

分 类 号：F540.31[经济管理—产业经济]