Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario  

作　　者：张颖 王会军 孙建奇 Helge DRANGE 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science [4]Department of Geophysics,University of Bergen

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2010年第6期1246-1258,共13页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences under (Grant Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-05);the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Pro-gram) (Grant No.2009CB421407);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005,40775049, and 40805029)

摘　　要：The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.

关 键 词：Genesis Potential Index tropical cyclone western North Pacific global warming SRES A2 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP311.5[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]