可靠性增长下的Bayes序贯检验方法  

Bayesian sequential testing in reliability growth case

作　　者：邢云燕[1] 武小悦[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《航空动力学报》2010年第10期2201-2205,共5页Journal of Aerospace Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70571083)

摘　　要：针对可靠性增长下的序贯检验分析问题,提出了一种变总体Bayes序贯检验方法.该方法依据产品研制过程中产生的多状态试验数据,利用离散AMSAA(Army Material Systems Analysis Activity)可靠性增长模型对产品可靠性的变化规律进行描述,给出了变总体试验数据似然函数的表达式,并对变总体Bayes序贯检验的后验概率比和决策阈值进行了定义,进而构建了可靠性增长下的Bayes序贯检验模型.研究结果表明,提出的方法有效地解决了具有可靠性增长的可靠性指标的假设检验问题.For the sequential testing analysis under the reliability growth,a Bayesian sequential testing method in varying population cases was proposed in this paper.The method employed discrete AMSAA（Army Material Systems Analysis Activity） model to describe the growth trend of product reliability and figured out the likelihood function of varying population test data.Furthermore,the Bayesian sequential testing model under the condition of reliability growth was obtained by constructing the posterior probability ratio and decision threshold.The research result shows that the hypothesis testing for reliability index with reliability growth can be solved efficiently by the proposed method.

关 键 词：可靠性鉴定 序贯检验 BAYES方法 可靠性增长 变总体 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]