灰色数列模型法在研究平均发展速度中的应用  

The Application of Grey Model Method in the Study or Mean Development Speed

作　　者：朱玉贵 曹亚军 李金波 

机构地区：[1]湖北省长阳土家族自治县卫生防疫站,443500 [2]长阳土家族自治县技柘坪卫生院

出　　处：《中国医院统计》1999年第2期82-83,共2页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

摘　　要：目的 优选研究平均发展速度的计算方法。方法 以湖北省1988年～1995年伤寒及副伤寒发病率为例,用GM(1,1)灰色数列模型法和其它4种方法分别计算平均发展速度,比较拟合优度。结果 伤寒发病率平均下降速度为11.97％,相关指数R^2=0.994 8,经F检验,极显著地优于其它4种计算方法。结论 灰色数列模型法用于研究平均发展速度,具有计算简单、结果直观和准确度高等优点,值得推广应用。Objective To explore a calculating method in the study of mean development speed. MethodsThe incidence rates of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever from 1988 to 1995 in Hubei province were calculated by the grey method and other four methods simutaneously. Results The mean decreased speed of typhoid fever was 11. 97%. The correlation index was R2 = 0. 994 8. the grey model is significantly better than one of the other four methods in goodness of fit by F-test. Conclusion The grey model method was simple, direct, exact in studing mean development speed and was worth wide application.

关 键 词：灰色数列模型 平均发展速度 应用 伤寒 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R516.301[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]