人口因素如何挑起外贸失衡:现象描述、理论模型与数值模拟  

How Population Factors Stirs up Trade Imbalance:Phenomenon Description,Theoretic Model and Numerical Simulation

作　　者：杨继军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京审计学院经济学院 [2]南京大学经济学院,211815

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2010年第11期3-12,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"外贸顺差问题研究"(08AJY004);国家社科基金一般项目"中国对外贸易不平衡发展趋势研究"(10BJY079);国家社科基金青年项目"区域非均衡发展约束下产品内国际分工的就业效应:理论;实证与对策研究"(09CJL033);江苏省社科基金项目"人力资本与服务外包技术外溢研究"(9EYC014)的资助

摘　　要：文章强调人口因素在外贸失衡问题上的重要性。缘于经济体人口转型时序上的先后和速率上的高低,人口年龄结构会在地域上呈现出不同的分布特征。在一个可求解的四期迭代模型中,劳动适龄人口数量高、人口抚育比低的经济体倾向于高储蓄,而由于人口的储蓄重心一般要晚于投资需求,所以这类国家通常出现结构性的国民储蓄大于国内投资问题,经常项目顺差自然成为这个问题的一部分,进一步的数值模拟为上述判断提供了支持。此外,人口年龄结构的"高"或"低",是劳动适龄人口在时间上错置的结果,从一个连续的、动态的视域考察,人口年龄结构总是处于高低嬗替中。因此,人口因素促成的外贸失衡,虽然是结构性的、长期的,但却不是永久性的,人口年龄结构的反转迟早将搅动各国已有的贸易收支地位。This paper focuses on the importance of population factors to global economic imbalance. Owing to the difference of population transition on the timing and ratio, the population age structure shows striking regional distribution features. In an overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility, countries with low dependency ratio tends to keep high savings, because the demographic ＂center of gravity＂ for saving should be later in the age distribution than that for investments demand. Therefore, these countries usually have a kind of problem that national savings exceeds domestic investment, thus current account surplus becomes natural. Further simulation supports the conclusion. Furthermore, from a continuous and dynamic viewpoint, population age structure is always in the course of change between high and low. The global economic imbalance caused by population factors is of the structural and long-term nature, but not of persisting nature, and the population age structure will soon or later stir the existing trade payment position of countries.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 人口抚育比 人口转型 经常项目余额 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]