低碳经济的动态CGE研究  

A dynamic CGE model analysis on low-carbon economy

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 刘亦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《科学学研究》2010年第10期1470-1475,共6页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJL014);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(08JA790037);湖南省社会科学规划项目(08YBB315)

摘　　要：为能够比较精确地运用国内经济信息和经济数据研究低碳经济对中国经济的发展态势,尝试借助动态CGE模型来模拟分析低碳经济对中国经济发展的产出影响。研究结果表明:发展低碳经济在一定程度上推动了我国经济的发展,但会导致企业削减就业岗位;对我国各产业影响不尽相同,能源密集型产业对能源需求的减少是降低能源强度的主要原因。低碳经济将起到不错的环境保护效果,大气污染、水污染和固体废物污染均有显著的降幅,但随着经济结构的动态调整,污染排放量均有所回升。In order to be able to use more precise information on the domestic economy,and economic data research low-carbon economy on China＇s economic development trend,this paper attempts with dynamic CGE model to simulate the analysis of low-carbon economy on the output of China＇s economic development impact.The results show that：the development of low-carbon economy to a certain extent,promoted China＇s economic development,but it will lead to companies cutting jobs;on the different effects of China＇s various industries,energy-intensive industries to reduce energy demand is to reduce the energy intensity of the the main reason.Low-carbon economy will play a good environmental results,air pollution,water pollution and solid waste pollution,showed a significant decline,but with the dynamic adjustment of economic structure,pollution discharge volume picked up.

关 键 词：低碳经济 CGE模型 MCHUGE模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]