能源消费、技术进步对江苏经济增长的影响研究——基于完全分解模型  

Influence effect of energy consumption and technical progress to economic growth in Jiangsu province: based on decomposition model

作　　者：王迪[1] 聂锐[2] 张炎治[1] 龙如银[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学能源经济与管理研究所,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《科学学研究》2010年第10期1490-1494,共5页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90410015);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(08JHQ0053);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(09EYA001)

摘　　要：在对江苏省经济增长分析的基础上,运用无残差的完全分解模型进行量化分析,分解出能源消费总量、能源投入结构与技术进步等因素对经济增长的影响效果,得出相应的影响效应系数;结果显示三者共同解释了江苏经济增长90%以上的原因,其中能耗的规模效应起到主导作用,技术进步对经济增长的影响效应呈波动性增长趋势;进一步分析可知,由于在前期能源投入的提前透支及其滞后影响,高资源依赖的产业结构对经济增长起到阻碍作用,技术进步效应弱化;最后提出调整产业结构、开源节流、发展低碳经济等相关建议。Based on the analysis of energy consumption,the non-residue complete decomposition model is applied to the quantitative analysis of the effects of three economically factors on the growth of economic in Jiangsu Province,i.e.,the scale of energy consumption,energy consumption structure and the technical progress,and obtained its corresponding influencing coefficient;Then,the results showed that three factors explained above 90% of Jiangsu＇s economic growth totally,and the energy consumption scale effect was in a dominant status,technical progress showed a increasing trend with volatility;Further study indicate that the high-resource dependent industrial structure has hindrance function to the economic growth,owing to previous overdraft of energy consumption and its lag effects,and the technical progress show weakening effect;Finally,the paper gives some policy suggestions about adjusting industrial structure,exploitation-utilization of energy and low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：能源消费 能源效率 完全分解模型 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]