基于拓展四阶段法的城市轨道交通客流预测  

Passenger Flow Forecast for Urban Rail Transit Based on Extended Four-Step Model

作　　者：裴剑平[1] 范东涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省交通规划设计院有限公司,南京210005

出　　处：《都市快轨交通》2010年第5期57-61,共5页Urban Rapid Rail Transit

摘　　要：城市轨道交通对引导城市空间布局起重要作用,对城市轨道交通工程进行可行性研究的重要一环是客流需求预测。充分引入国外先进的规划理念和方法,对传统四阶段法的框架、思路和方法进行拓展,即在出行产生、出行分布、方式划分和出行分配4个阶段的总体框架下,增加了"时段划分"和"反馈"2部分内容。以无锡市城市轨道交通1号线客流预测为例,引入复合阻抗、分布校准、模型反馈等新技术,通过与国内外城市的比较分析和论证,使预测更加准确和科学。Urban rail transit plays an important role in urban space configuration.Passenger flow forecast is an important link for feasibility studies of urban rail transit.Incorporating advanced planning theories and methodologies in China and abroad,the framework and method of the four-step models were extended in this paper.With Line 1 of urban rail transit in Wuxi city as an example,the extended four-step model was applied to passenger flow forecast.Many new approaches including composite impedance,trip distribution calibration and feedback loop,etc.were utilized.Via further comparisons against the relative statistics of other cities in China and abroad,the proposed methods were proved to be more reasonable and accurate.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流预测 四阶段法 相继平均法 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]