苜蓿褐斑病气象因子预测模型研究  

Meteorological Factor Forecast Model of Alfalfa Brown Spot

作　　者：曾亮[1,2] 袁庆华[1] 姚拓[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所,北京100193 [2]甘肃农业大学草业学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《中国草地学报》2010年第5期47-50,共4页Chinese Journal of Grassland

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD16B04-1);国家奶业项目(2006BAD04A04-03-07)

摘　　要：通过对北京地区苜蓿褐斑病的系统调查,结合历年该病发生的历史资料,在褐斑病发生流行规律的基础上,对影响该病流行的相关气象因子进行逐步回归分析,组建了北京地区苜蓿褐斑病流行的预测模型Y=-48.465+0.152X1+0.599X2-0.019X3,并对该模型的预测准确度进行了检验。The regression analysis of meteorological factors which have effect on disease prevalence was carried out based on the systematic investigation,historical data and epidemic regularity of alfalfa brown spot in Beijing area.The prediction model of epidemic disease in this area was set up,which was： Y=-48.465＋0.152X1＋0.599X2-0.019X3.Prediction accuracy of the model was also tested in the study.

关 键 词：苜蓿褐斑病 气象因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：S43[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]