基于可信性理论的输电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability evaluation of transmission system based on credibility theory

作　　者：赵书强[1] 王磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第5期11-15,22,共6页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAA14B05)

摘　　要：输电系统可靠性评估是电力系统可靠性评估的重要组成部分。传统输电系统可靠性评估忽略可靠性数据的不确定性,用可靠性数据的平均值进行评估。为了考虑可靠性数据的不确定性对可靠性评估的影响,运用可信性理论处理可靠性数据的不确定性。运用提出的方法对IEEE-RBTS和IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统进行评估可以发现,运用传统方法评估的结果与运用新方法评估的结果之间存在明显的差异,说明可靠性数据的不确定性对可靠性评估的明显影响,是不可忽略的因素。提出的方法也为处理可靠性数据的不确定性提供了一种有效的手段,具有一定的价值。The reliability evaluation of transmission systems is an important part of power systems reliability evaluation.The traditional reliability evaluation of transmission systems ignores the uncertainty of reliability base and uses average value of reliability base to evaluate reliability.The paper uses credibility theory to tackle the uncertainty of reliability date in order to calculate its effect on reliability evaluation.The IEEE-RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 are evaluated by the method and the traditional method.The result shows evident difference,which suggests that the uncertainty of reliability base have an evident effect on reliability evaluation and can not be ignored.The method the paper presents provides an effective means to deal with the uncertainty of reliability base and has some value.

关 键 词：输电系统 可靠性评估 可信性理论 深度优先搜索算法 最小切负荷 

分 类 号：TM726[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]