节能减排环境下广东省年最大降温负荷的测算与分析  

Calculation and analysis of the annual maximum high-temperature related load in the energy saving and emission reduction environment in Guangdong Province

作　　者：童述林[1] 文福拴[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640 [2]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第5期32-37,共6页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200805610020)

摘　　要：随着人民生活水平的不断提高和气温的逐步变暖,空调等降温负荷在南方省区尤其是广东省的夏季负荷中所占比重趋于增大,其对电力系统安全和经济运行的影响越来越大。另一方面,节能减排政策的实施也会改变负荷特性。这样,对节能减排环境下的降温负荷进行比较准确的测算和分析对提高整体负荷预测精度具有重要作用,同时也可为制定高峰时段的负荷调控措施提供科学依据,因而引起了南方省区一些电力调度中心的广泛关注。在此背景下,根据广东省2005年至2009年每天96点的负荷数据及同期温度数据,采用最大负荷比较法与基准负荷比较法,测算出广东省在这几年的年最大降温负荷值。之后,对实施节能减排政策前后的负荷变化情况做了对比分析。计算结果与实际情况相符。With the ever improvement of the people＇s living standard and the warming of the climate,the proportion of the high-temperature related loads such as air conditioning over the total load demand has been increasing in the summer period in south China especially in Guangdong province,and this has resulted in some negative impacts on the secure and economic operation of the power system concerned.On the other hand,the implementation of the energy saving and emission reduction policy has changed the load characteristics on the whole.An accurate estimation on the amount of the high-temperature related loads will play an important role for accurate load forecasting,and will provide a foundation for load control in peak load periods,and hence has become an issue with extensive concerns by the power dispatching centers in south China.Given this background,based on the 96-point load and temperature data,an effort is made to calculate and analyze the annual maximum high-temperature related loads in the years 2005 to 2009 in Guangdong province,by employing the maximum load-based comparison method and the base load-based comparison method respectively.Then,the loads are compared for the two scenarios before and after the implementation of the energy saving and emission reduction policy,and the analysis results are consistent with the actual situations.

关 键 词：节能减排 年最大降温负荷 最大负荷比较法 基准负荷比较法 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]