堤坝失事风险的突变评价方法及其应用  

Catastrophe method of levee failure risk assessment and its application

作　　者：刘亚莲[1] 周翠英[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东水利电力职业技术学院,广东广州510635 [2]中山大学工学院岩土工程与信息技术研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2010年第5期5-8,共4页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金(07006119)

摘　　要：通过对堤坝失事模式和影响因素分析,确定了堤坝失事风险评价指标体系。依据堤防工程的等级、防洪标准、失事可能性及失事后果将堤坝失事风险等级划分为高风险、较高风险、一般风险、较低风险和低风险5个等级。利用突变级数法中归一公式的内在作用机制确定各评价指标的权重,避免了对各因素进行主观赋权,使评价结果更加科学合理。将该方法应用于广东省北江大堤石角墟—蚬壳岗堤段的风险评价中,结果表明该堤段属于一般风险堤段。An index system for levee failure risk assessment was established based on the analysis of factors and modes of levee failure.The levee failure risk levels were divided into 5 categories of high,relatively high,general,relatively low and low levels according to the levee class,flood-control standards,failure possibility and failure consequences.The internal mechanism of normalized formula in the catastrophe progression method was employed to determine weight of every index and to avoid subjective weight of any factor so as to obtain more rational and scientific assessment results.The proposed method was applied to the risk assessment of Shijiaoxu-Xianqiaogang levee section of Beijiang Dike in Guangdong Province,resulting in the risk to be general level.

关 键 词：突变级数 堤防 堤坝失事风险评价 评价指标体系 北江大堤石角墟—蚬壳岗堤段 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]