海平面上升对河北黄骅台风风暴潮漫滩影响的数值研究  

Numerical research on effects of mean sea level on storm surge inundation in Huanghua

作　　者：仉天宇[1] 于福江[1] 董剑希[1] 付翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋通报》2010年第5期499-503,共5页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：海洋公益项目资助:200905013

摘　　要：基于河北省黄骅地区的风暴潮漫滩灾害风险评估模型,利用成熟的业务化台风风暴潮数值预报模式、100m分辨率的风暴潮漫滩数值模式,以及该地区的海平面上升和地面沉降结果数据,对台风登陆地点、路径、方向进行科学组合,利用各种组合参数条件进行数值计算,得到了995、985、975、965hPa四种台风强度下,海平面上升对风暴潮漫滩的影响。在相对海平面上升50cm和100cm情况下,四种台风强度的风暴潮平均最大漫滩面积分别增加了约35%和86%;台风强度中等,即985或975hPa时,风暴潮最大漫滩面积的增加更为显著。研究表明,海平面上升对该地区的漫滩影响非常明显,有效防范风暴潮灾害的同时,在气候变化的大背景下,应进一步研究和提出应对海平面上升的长效防治措施。Based on the risk assessment model for the storm surge flood disaster in Huanghua of Hebei Province,with robust typhoon storm surge numerical model and 100m spatial resolution storm surge overland numerical model,and with the result data about mean sea level rising and land subside,the author calculated all possible routes,landing points,and direction of typhoon,and also considered 4 levels typhoon strength,including P0= 995 hPa,985 hPa,975 hPa and 965 hPa,and finally concluded with the effects of mean sea level on storm surge flooding area.The results show,if sea level rising 50/100cm,the average typhoon storm surge flooding area would increase about 35%/86%.And while P0=985 hPa or 975 Pa,the increasing area would become larger in percentage.The research indicates that the sea level rising will affect severely on the typhoon storm surge inundation in Huanghua.Nowadays,the climate change causing sea level rising will lead to some important attention on these low plain areas such as Huanghua and its adjacent Tianjin Binhai New District.

关 键 词：河北黄骅 海平面上升 风暴潮 漫滩 风险评估 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]