基于可信性理论的电网规划方法  

Transmission Planning Based on Credibility Theory

作　　者：张可虎[1] 田建伟[2] 徐敏杰[2] 石红[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东水利职业学院,山东日照276826 [2]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044 [3]北京石油化工学院,北京102617

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2010年第5期37-42,共6页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

摘　　要：电力工业的解除管制和重构使电力规划和运营面临着大量的不确定因素.以经济性和可靠性为规划目标,运用模糊理论描述未来系统负荷、发电机出力、线路建设费用等不确定因素,基于可信性理论建立了电网规划的模糊期望值模型.为求解模糊规划问题,采用了模糊潮流、模糊模拟与遗传算法相结合的方法.利用修改后的IEEE-14节点系统算例验证了方法的有效性,并进一步比较确定性规划和不确定性规划的可扩展性,结果表明考虑不确定因素的规划方案对未来负荷的变化有更强的鲁棒性.Deregulation and reconstruction of power industry have led to a great deal of uncertainties in power planning and operation. Target at economical efficiency and reliability, fuzzy theory is applied to describe future uncertainties such as power load, generator output, line investment and so on, and a fuzzy expected value model for transmission planning based on credibility theory is proposed. In order to solve the fuzzy planning problem, combination of fuzzy power flow, fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm are adopted. Simulation on modified IEEE 14-bus system verifies the validity of the proposed model, and compares the expandability of certainty planning model and uncertainty planning model further, results obtained demonstrate that the expansion planning considering uncertainties is more robust.

关 键 词：电网规划 模糊期望值 模糊模拟 遗传算法 不确定性 可信性理论 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]