青藏高原未来气温变化趋势的R/S分析  

R/S ANALYSIS ON THE TREND OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU IN FUTURE

作　　者：罗隆诚[1] 王俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2010年第4期93-99,共7页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30500077);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2006D02)

摘　　要：青藏高原气候变化是全球气候变化的重要组成部分。文章采用R/S分析法,对青藏高原拉萨、托托河等9台站的气温平均值和极端值进行了计算分析。研究结果表明:青藏高原气温的长期相关性特征总体表现为持续性,表明青藏高原未来气温总体变化将与过去的变化趋势一致。年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温有着几乎一致的升高趋势,其中年极端最低气温升高趋势的持续性相对较强。由青藏高原9台站年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年极端最低气温3项气候要素时间序列的升高趋势及其长期相关的持续性特征,预示着青藏高原未来冷暖气候变化的趋势是持续变暖。Based on R/S analysis,the average temperature including the average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperature,the extremely temperature including the extremely minimum and maximum temperature from 1951-2002 in the meteorological stations of Dari,Tulane,Golmud,Lhasa,Maduo,Qumarlai,Tuotuo River,Xining and Yushu in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been calculated.The results show that the Hurst index of all the targets were beyond 0.5 which especially indicates that the trends of rising,with the trends in the past more than 50 years and have relatively strong persistence.And it is worth an attention to the case that three targets are below 0.5 which indicates that climate changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau also have anti-persistence.Generally speaking,climate changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have evident Hurst phenomena.The yearly average temperature has an evident identical rising trend with the yearly average minimum temperature in the nine stations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the phenomena have considerable persistence.The yearly extremely maximum and average temperature in the nine stations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau almost has identical rising trends each other.But the persistence of the trends are considerably various and the rising of the yearly extremely minimum temperatures has a relatively strong persistence.The phenomena that the yearly average temperatures,yearly average minimum temperatures and yearly extremely minimum temperatures in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau have rising trends and the trends have considerably persistence indicates that the air temperatures in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will persistently become warmer in future.

关 键 词：气温 R/S分析 HURST指数 青藏高原 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]